Poisson Distribution
Answer 20b

Pas de Calais.

Explanation

If you draw a line along the major axis of the high-yield zone of the diagram in Answer 4a, and extend it across the Channel, you will find yourself, generally speaking, in the Pas de Calais region of France. This in fact was where the V-Bomb sites were concentrated. As might have been guessed without any counting whatsoever: that is the narrowest part of the English Channel, and the most direct line to London from France.

Comment

Unfortunately for the neatness of this problem, there was not one V-Bomb site. There were 171, only 94 of which were identified by those in England responsible for planning air strikes on them. The pattern on the actual map of South London thus cannot have been as linear as in our suggested version. But the present slightly artificial problem may still suffice to suggest the caution with which real world problems should be approached.

We don't know of any more precise data about the pattern of V-Bomb hits on South London. Given the fuss that has been made about this problem in the literature, it would be good to see the original map. Florence David was assigned to the problem while the problem was happening. She died on 23 July 1993, just short of her 84th birthday. The present writer admits a fault in not having interviewed her before that time.

24 Aug 2007 / Contact The Project / Exit to Resources Page